The ADCIRC Storm Surge Guidance System combines information on tides, river flows, wind, atmospheric pressure and surface waves to predict the response of the coastal ocean, including when, where and to what extent storm surge and flooding will impact a coastal community, often with greater precision than other available models. ADCIRC can be used to analyze the response due to historical storms, statistical sets of storms for risk analysis and design, hypothetical storms scenarios for planning and for forecasting storm events in real time.
Results are made publicly available on the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) website.
Several Coastal Resilience Center researchers involved in ongoing projects are continuing to improve ADCIRC by adding new model inputs, such as precipitation, and decreasing the computer power needed to run simulations.
Results generated by ADCIRC are used by multiple federal and state agencies to help predict flooding associated with storm surge. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the North Carolina Department of Emergency Management are among the agencies that factor ADCIRC modeling into their operations. At the local level, results are shared with coastal emergency managers to assist with decision making including road closings, evacuations and search and rescue operations.
Mapping results through CERA
ADCIRC coastal forecasts are currently run on supercomputers at the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at UNC-Chapel Hill, at the Center for Computation and Technology (CCT) at Louisiana State University, at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) at the University of Texas and at other collaborating partner institutions. Forecast results are displayed using a Louisiana State University-based CERA platform that projects results onto a map for presentation. In addition, shape files can be downloaded for use with standard GIS applications. During active hurricane events, ADCIRC model runs are initiated every time a new storm forecast is released by the National Hurricane Center.
CERA helps users understand the potential impacts and timing of storm surge. This provides more information to decision-makers and first responders to support their due diligence efforts to achieve better outcomes.