The ADCIRC Prediction System (APS) uses the ADCIRC model to provide timely, high-resolution information on how coastal storm surge, flooding and winds will impact a coastal community, often with greater precision than other available sources. APS can be used to analyze the response due to historical storms, statistical sets of storms for risk analysis and design, and hypothetical storms for planning scenarios, and for forecasting storm events in real time.

Results are made publicly available on the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) website.

Several Coastal Resilience Center researchers involved in ongoing projects are continuing to improve APS by adding new model inputs, such as precipitation, and decreasing the computer time needed to run simulations.

Results generated by APS are used by multiple federal and state agencies to help predict flooding associated with storm surge. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Texas Department of Emergency Management are among the agencies that factor APS products into their operations. At the local level, results are shared with coastal emergency managers to assist with decision making including road closings, evacuations and search and rescue operations.

APS forecasts are currently run on supercomputers at the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at UNC-Chapel Hill, at the Center for Computation and Technology (CCT) at Louisiana State University, at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) at the University of Texas and at other collaborating partner institutions. Forecast results are displayed using the Louisiana State University-based CERA platform that displays results on user-scalable maps. In addition, shape files can be downloaded from CERA for use with standard GIS applications. During active hurricane events, APS generates new results every time an updated storm forecast is released by the National Hurricane Center. The updated CERA maps help users, including decision-makers and first responders, visualize and understand the potential impacts and timing of storm surge and inundation.

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